tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2189 at 09:55 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 33%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 2189 Southwest Flight history → PSP 09:55 LAS 11:00 13% 3% 0.6% 95%
WN 4199 Southwest Flight history → PSP 16:10 LAS 17:20 33% 11% 0.6% 77%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → PSP 05:30 → DEN 08:52UA 5411 · flown by SkyWest 2h 30m Denver DEN 11:22 → LAS 12:24UA 526 6h 54m 97% 81%
SouthwestDetails → PSP 05:05 → DEN 08:15WN 4803 2h 45m Denver DEN 11:00 → LAS 11:55WN 1561 6h 50m 100% 80%
DeltaDetails → PSP 06:06 → SLC 08:54DL 4030 · flown by SkyWest 2h 41m Salt Lake City SLC 11:35 → LAS 12:01DL 1659 5h 55m 98% 77%
AmericanDetails → PSP 06:32 → PHX 07:52AA 6406 · flown by SkyWest 2h 32m Phoenix PHX 10:24 → LAS 11:37AA 2037 5h 05m 95% 76%
AlaskaDetails → PSP 07:16 → PDX 09:48AS 3370 · flown by SkyWest 57m Portland PDX 10:45 → LAS 13:11AS 757 5h 55m 91% 74%
UnitedDetails → PSP 14:37 → SFO 16:18UA 5946 · flown by SkyWest 3h 19m San Francisco SFO 19:37 → LAS 21:27UA 1995 6h 50m 99% 73%
UnitedDetails → PSP 13:30 → DEN 16:43UA 1843 2h 22m Denver DEN 19:05 → LAS 20:08UA 655 6h 38m 95% 71%
DeltaDetails → PSP 17:15 → SLC 20:00DL 3852 · flown by SkyWest 3h 15m Salt Lake City SLC 23:15 → LAS 23:40DL 1662 6h 25m 99% 70%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → PSP 07:44 → SEA 10:40AS 3284 · flown by SkyWest 51m Seattle SEA 11:31 → LAS 14:16AS 738 6h 32m 69% 47%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON