tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, UA 5542 at 07:26, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 5542 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → PSP 07:26 LAX 08:30 18% 7% 0.6% 87%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PSP 06:06 → SLC 08:54DL 4030 · flown by SkyWest 2h 36m Salt Lake City SLC 11:30 → LAX 12:27DL 829 6h 21m 98% 85%
SouthwestDetails → PSP 05:05 → DEN 08:15WN 4803 1h 20m Denver DEN 09:35 → LAX 11:05WN 1569 6h 00m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → PSP 05:30 → DEN 08:52UA 5411 · flown by SkyWest 1h 10m Denver DEN 10:02 → LAX 11:34UA 405 6h 04m 94% 82%
AmericanDetails → PSP 06:32 → PHX 07:52AA 6406 · flown by SkyWest 2h 44m Phoenix PHX 10:36 → LAX 12:06AA 2869 5h 34m 96% 80%
AlaskaDetails → PSP 07:16 → PDX 09:48AS 3370 · flown by SkyWest 57m Portland PDX 10:45 → LAX 13:20AS 695 6h 04m 91% 78%
DeltaDetails → PSP 17:15 → SLC 20:00DL 3852 · flown by SkyWest 2h 45m Salt Lake City SLC 22:45 → LAX 23:42DL 1197 6h 27m 99% 74%
UnitedDetails → PSP 14:37 → SFO 16:18UA 5946 · flown by SkyWest 2h 25m San Francisco SFO 18:43 → LAX 20:27UA 1427 5h 50m 98% 74%
UnitedDetails → PSP 18:27 → SFO 20:10UA 5631 · flown by SkyWest 2h 27m San Francisco SFO 22:37 → LAX 00:19 +1UA 2179 5h 52m 97% 73%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → PSP 16:07 → SFO 17:50UA 4786 · flown by SkyWest 53m San Francisco SFO 18:43 → LAX 20:27UA 1427 4h 20m 74% 56%
AmericanDetails → PSP 12:55 → PHX 14:09AA 2330 46m Phoenix PHX 14:55 → LAX 16:19AA 2368 3h 24m 53% 41%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON