Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 2422 at 14:15, with a 22% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 2422 Southwest Flight history →	PSP 14:15	OAK 15:40	22%	5%	0.7%	81%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oakland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PSP 17:15 → SLC 20:00DL 3852 · flown by SkyWest	2h 50m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:50 → OAK 23:50DL 3797 · flown by SkyWest	6h 35m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	PSP 06:06 → SLC 08:54DL 4030 · flown by SkyWest	1h 51m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:45 → OAK 11:46DL 4134 · flown by SkyWest	5h 40m	98%	91%
Southwest Details →	PSP 05:05 → DEN 08:15WN 4803	2h 40m Denver	DEN 10:55 → OAK 12:25WN 1577	7h 20m	100%	83%
Southwest Details →	PSP 09:55 → LAS 11:00WN 2189	2h 30m Las Vegas	LAS 13:30 → OAK 15:10WN 4488	5h 15m	100%	73%
Southwest Details →	PSP 16:10 → LAS 17:20WN 4199	2h 30m Las Vegas	LAS 19:50 → OAK 21:25WN 4270	5h 15m	100%	61%
Alaska Details →	PSP 07:44 → SEA 10:40AS 3284 · flown by SkyWest	1h 01m Seattle	SEA 11:41 → OAK 13:59AS 1328	6h 15m	83%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON