Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 6406 at 06:32 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–31%.

Safest bet that day AA 6406 PSP 06:32 → PHX 07:52 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AA 2929 PSP 16:51 → PHX 18:05 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 6406 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PSP 06:32	PHX 07:52	13%	7%	0.6%	85%
AA 2333 American Flight history →	PSP 19:37	PHX 20:52	26%	12%	0.8%	75%
AA 2330 American Flight history →	PSP 12:55	PHX 14:09	27%	8%	0.7%	91%worse than usual
AA 2929 American Flight history →	PSP 16:51	PHX 18:05	31%	10%	0.8%	83%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON