tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 18–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 3284 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → PSP 07:44 SEA 10:40 18% 7% 0.6% 88%
AS 582 Alaska Flight history → PSP 14:10 SEA 17:00 22% 7% 0.8% 87%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → PSP 07:26 → LAX 08:30UA 5542 · flown by SkyWest 3h 13m Los Angeles LAX 11:43 → SEA 14:36UA 325 7h 10m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → PSP 06:06 → SLC 08:54DL 4030 · flown by SkyWest 2h 41m Salt Lake City SLC 11:35 → SEA 12:49DL 2995 6h 43m 98% 81%
AmericanDetails → PSP 06:32 → PHX 07:52AA 6406 · flown by SkyWest 3h 40m Phoenix PHX 11:32 → SEA 14:46AA 3440 · flown by Envoy 8h 14m 97% 81%
UnitedDetails → PSP 05:30 → DEN 08:52UA 5411 · flown by SkyWest 2h 29m Denver DEN 11:21 → SEA 13:21UA 1424 7h 51m 97% 79%
AlaskaDetails → PSP 07:16 → PDX 09:48AS 3370 · flown by SkyWest 2h 15m Portland PDX 12:03 → SEA 13:03AS 3078 · flown by SkyWest 5h 47m 95% 78%
DeltaDetails → PSP 17:15 → SLC 20:00DL 3852 · flown by SkyWest 2h 45m Salt Lake City SLC 22:45 → SEA 00:01 +1DL 2998 6h 46m 99% 77%
SouthwestDetails → PSP 05:05 → DEN 08:15WN 4803 1h 50m Denver DEN 10:05 → SEA 12:05WN 3051 7h 00m 100% 74%
AmericanDetails → PSP 12:55 → PHX 14:09AA 2330 3h 46m Phoenix PHX 17:55 → SEA 21:05AA 4307 · flown by Envoy 8h 10m 95% 70%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → PSP 19:30 → SMF 21:05WN 2318 50m Sacramento SMF 21:55 → SEA 23:55WN 4985 4h 25m 59% 39%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON