Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 5631 at 18:27 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; morning flights run 21–32%.

Safest bet that day UA 5631 PSP 18:27 → SFO 20:10 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time Riskiest AS 3497 PSP 07:15 → SFO 08:48 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5631 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PSP 18:27	SFO 20:10	18%	17%	0.6%	64%
AS 3080 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PSP 15:51	SFO 17:28	19%	14%	0.6%	33%
UA 4786 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PSP 16:07	SFO 17:50	20%	13%	0.6%	73%
UA 5946 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PSP 14:37	SFO 16:18	20%	19%	0.6%	39%
UA 6052 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PSP 06:45	SFO 08:28	21%	11%	0.6%	60%
UA 5660 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PSP 11:09	SFO 12:52	24%	21%	0.6%	67%
AS 3497 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PSP 07:15	SFO 08:48	32%	13%	0.6%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON