tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 2318 at 19:30, with a 26% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 2318 Southwest Flight history → PSP 19:30 SMF 21:05 26% 9% 0.6% 88%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PSP 17:15 → SLC 20:00DL 3852 · flown by SkyWest 3h 04m Salt Lake City SLC 23:04 → SMF 23:44DL 1582 6h 29m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → PSP 06:06 → SLC 08:54DL 4030 · flown by SkyWest 2h 41m Salt Lake City SLC 11:35 → SMF 12:16DL 1423 6h 10m 98% 86%
SouthwestDetails → PSP 05:05 → DEN 08:15WN 4803 2h 05m Denver DEN 10:20 → SMF 11:55WN 1740 6h 50m 100% 86%
AlaskaDetails → PSP 07:16 → PDX 09:48AS 3370 · flown by SkyWest 1h 12m Portland PDX 11:00 → SMF 12:33AS 2399 · flown by Horizon 5h 17m 92% 82%
DeltaDetails → PSP 12:23 → SLC 15:11DL 4042 · flown by SkyWest 2h 24m Salt Lake City SLC 17:35 → SMF 18:16DL 2585 5h 53m 95% 80%
AmericanDetails → PSP 06:32 → PHX 07:52AA 6406 · flown by SkyWest 2h 12m Phoenix PHX 10:04 → SMF 12:04AA 2630 5h 32m 95% 72%
UnitedDetails → PSP 18:27 → SFO 20:10UA 5631 · flown by SkyWest 2h 44m San Francisco SFO 22:54 → SMF 23:59UA 1302 5h 32m 98% 69%
SouthwestDetails → PSP 09:55 → LAS 11:00WN 2189 1h 35m Las Vegas LAS 12:35 → SMF 14:10WN 4533 4h 15m 96% 67%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → PSP 07:26 → LAX 08:30UA 5542 · flown by SkyWest 50m Los Angeles LAX 09:20 → SMF 10:56UA 5372 · flown by SkyWest 3h 30m 64% 54%
UnitedDetails → PSP 14:37 → SFO 16:18UA 5946 · flown by SkyWest 50m San Francisco SFO 17:08 → SMF 18:16UA 5796 · flown by SkyWest 3h 39m 72% 52%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON