Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 1023 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–15%.

Safest bet that day DL 1023 PVD 06:00 → ATL 08:35 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest DL 2314 PVD 17:24 → ATL 20:14 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1023 Delta Flight history →	PVD 06:00	ATL 08:35	5%	3%	0.7%	91%
DL 2840 Delta Flight history →	PVD 08:41	ATL 11:15	8%	3%	0.7%	91%
DL 2147 Delta Flight history →	PVD 13:27	ATL 16:04	14%	4%	0.7%	88%
DL 2314 Delta Flight history →	PVD 17:24	ATL 20:14	15%	5%	0.7%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON