tailodds FORECAST
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Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 3400 at 10:30, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3400 Southwest Flight history → PVD 10:30 BNA 12:00 9% 2% 0.6% 88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 1 h behind Providence). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → PVD 05:55 → BWI 07:25WN 3401 2h 20m Baltimore BWI 09:45 → BNA 10:35WN 487 5h 40m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → PVD 06:00 → ATL 08:35DL 1023 2h 46m Atlanta ATL 11:21 → BNA 11:30DL 2867 6h 30m 99% 89%
AmericanDetails → PVD 06:15 → PHL 07:40AA 1008 1h 55m Philadelphia PHL 09:35 → BNA 10:51AA 3221 5h 36m 100% 88%
SouthwestDetails → PVD 07:40 → MDW 09:05WN 3118 2h 15m Chicago MDW 11:20 → BNA 12:45WN 2733 6h 05m 100% 86%
UnitedDetails → PVD 05:50 → IAD 07:29UA 6192 · flown by Mesa 1h 01m Dulles IAD 08:30 → BNA 09:29UA 1366 4h 39m 95% 85%
UnitedDetails → PVD 06:00 → ORD 08:00UA 5786 · flown by SkyWest 2h 37m Chicago ORD 10:37 → BNA 12:29UA 2414 7h 29m 96% 83%
AmericanDetails → PVD 06:03 → CLT 08:15AA 1585 3h 05m Charlotte CLT 11:20 → BNA 12:02AA 5082 · flown by PSA 6h 59m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → PVD 08:41 → ATL 11:15DL 2840 2h 39m Atlanta ATL 13:54 → BNA 14:03DL 3159 6h 22m 98% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → PVD 15:15 → DCA 16:59AA 5334 · flown by PSA 47m Washington DCA 17:46 → BNA 18:58AA 1163 4h 43m 69% 49%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON