Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 1585 at 06:03 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–18%.

Safest bet that day AA 1585 PVD 06:03 → CLT 08:15 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 2318 PVD 16:42 → CLT 19:04 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1585 American Flight history →	PVD 06:03	CLT 08:15	6%	3%	0.7%	90%
AA 2338 American Flight history →	PVD 19:24	CLT 21:44	16%	6%	0.8%	75%
AA 2336 American Flight history →	PVD 11:42	CLT 13:55	17%	5%	0.7%	73%
AA 2318 American Flight history →	PVD 16:42	CLT 19:04	18%	6%	0.7%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON