tailodds FORECAST
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Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, B6 1197 at 05:45, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
B6 1197 JetBlue Flight history → PVD 05:45 FLL 08:52 11% 4% 1.1% 68%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Lauderdale on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → PVD 05:55 → BWI 07:25WN 3401 2h 25m Baltimore BWI 09:50 → FLL 12:20WN 4785 6h 25m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → PVD 06:00 → ATL 08:35DL 1023 1h 50m Atlanta ATL 10:25 → FLL 12:23DL 1512 6h 23m 98% 82%
AmericanDetails → PVD 06:15 → PHL 07:40AA 1008 3h 05m Philadelphia PHL 10:45 → FLL 13:38AA 695 7h 23m 100% 82%
UnitedDetails → PVD 05:50 → IAD 07:29UA 6192 · flown by Mesa 51m Dulles IAD 08:20 → FLL 11:07UA 1825 5h 17m 94% 79%
AmericanDetails → PVD 06:03 → CLT 08:15AA 1585 2h 45m Charlotte CLT 11:00 → FLL 13:03AA 1877 7h 00m 98% 77%
UnitedDetails → PVD 06:00 → ORD 08:00UA 5786 · flown by SkyWest 2h 59m Chicago ORD 10:59 → FLL 15:13UA 279 9h 13m 96% 76%
DeltaDetails → PVD 08:41 → ATL 11:15DL 2840 2h 30m Atlanta ATL 13:45 → FLL 15:41DL 1413 7h 00m 98% 76%
AmericanDetails → PVD 07:08 → ORD 08:59AA 360 3h 36m Chicago ORD 12:35 → FLL 16:43AA 672 9h 35m 98% 73%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON