Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, B6 1129 at 06:00, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


B6 1129 JetBlue Flight history →	PVD 06:00	JFK 06:59	8%	2%	0.8%	97%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PVD 06:00 → ATL 08:35DL 1023	2h 30m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → JFK 13:20DL 2380	7h 20m	99%	85%
American Details →	PVD 06:03 → CLT 08:15AA 1585	1h 12m Charlotte	CLT 09:27 → JFK 11:29AA 374	5h 26m	95%	84%
Delta Details →	PVD 05:45 → DTW 07:53DL 3626 · flown by SkyWest	2h 21m Detroit	DTW 10:14 → JFK 11:58DL 2751	6h 13m	95%	84%
American Details →	PVD 07:08 → ORD 08:59AA 360	2h 01m Chicago	ORD 11:00 → JFK 14:39AA 4350 · flown by Republic	7h 31m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	PVD 08:41 → ATL 11:15DL 2840	2h 40m Atlanta	ATL 13:55 → JFK 16:29DL 1575	7h 48m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	PVD 13:27 → ATL 16:04DL 2147	2h 41m Atlanta	ATL 18:45 → JFK 21:29DL 2398	8h 02m	98%	79%
Delta Details →	PVD 12:43 → DTW 14:50DL 3961 · flown by SkyWest	1h 28m Detroit	DTW 16:18 → JFK 18:29DL 2934	5h 46m	94%	76%
American Details →	PVD 15:15 → DCA 16:59AA 5334 · flown by PSA	2h 59m Washington	DCA 19:58 → JFK 21:30AA 4474 · flown by Republic	6h 15m	96%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON