Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4869 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–31%.

Safest bet that day WN 4869 PVD 07:00 → MCO 09:45 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest B6 2876 PVD 20:10 → MCO 23:13 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4869 Southwest Flight history →	PVD 07:00	MCO 09:45	5%	2%	3.9%	100%
B6 1076 JetBlue Flight history →	PVD 06:45	MCO 09:42	8%	4%	7.3%	90%
WN 284 Southwest Flight history →	PVD 18:35	MCO 21:30	28%	12%	17.4%	31%
B6 2876 JetBlue Flight history →	PVD 20:10	MCO 23:13	31%	14%	15.7%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON