Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, DL 1224 at 14:50, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 1224 Delta Flight history →	PVD 14:50	MSP 16:50	16%	5%	0.6%	75%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h behind Providence). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	PVD 05:50 → IAD 07:29UA 6192 · flown by Mesa	1h 16m Dulles	IAD 08:45 → MSP 10:36UA 3649 · flown by Republic	5h 46m	98%	87%
United Details →	PVD 10:25 → IAD 12:01UA 4609 · flown by GoJet	1h 19m Dulles	IAD 13:20 → MSP 15:11UA 3576 · flown by Republic	5h 46m	96%	87%
American Details →	PVD 06:15 → PHL 07:40AA 1008	3h 00m Philadelphia	PHL 10:40 → MSP 12:38AA 5658 · flown by PSA	7h 23m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	PVD 05:45 → DTW 07:53DL 3626 · flown by SkyWest	1h 07m Detroit	DTW 09:00 → MSP 09:54DL 2258	5h 09m	95%	86%
Delta Details →	PVD 06:00 → ATL 08:35DL 1023	1h 20m Atlanta	ATL 09:55 → MSP 11:31DL 2090	6h 31m	97%	86%
Southwest Details →	PVD 07:40 → MDW 09:05WN 3118	1h 10m Chicago	MDW 10:15 → MSP 11:45WN 2869	5h 05m	95%	86%
American Details →	PVD 07:08 → ORD 08:59AA 360	2h 48m Chicago	ORD 11:47 → MSP 13:32AA 3375 · flown by Envoy	7h 24m	98%	84%
American Details →	PVD 06:03 → CLT 08:15AA 1585	3h 00m Charlotte	CLT 11:15 → MSP 12:54AA 2153	7h 51m	98%	84%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	PVD 17:42 → DCA 19:15AA 343	51m Washington	DCA 20:06 → MSP 21:54AA 5506 · flown by PSA	5h 12m	67%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON