Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 5786 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–22%.

Safest bet that day UA 5786 PVD 06:00 → ORD 08:00 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest UA 5702 PVD 17:00 → ORD 19:03 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5786 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PVD 06:00	ORD 08:00	6%	5%	1.0%	96%
AA 360 American Flight history →	PVD 07:08	ORD 08:59	9%	4%	1.0%	81%
AA 3453 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PVD 13:31	ORD 15:23	16%	5%	1.6%	90%
AA 3771 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PVD 17:30	ORD 19:43	19%	6%	1.5%	84%
UA 5702 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PVD 17:00	ORD 19:03	22%	10%	1.0%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON