Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 1008 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15–25%.

Safest bet that day AA 1008 PVD 06:15 → PHL 07:40 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest AA 5183 PVD 19:30 → PHL 20:55 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1008 American Flight history →	PVD 06:15	PHL 07:40	5%	3%	0.8%	96%
AA 5166 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PVD 10:47	PHL 12:09	15%	5%	1.2%	77%
AA 5189 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PVD 14:59	PHL 16:23	24%	8%	1.6%	46%
AA 5183 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PVD 19:30	PHL 20:55	25%	8%	2.3%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON