tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching San Juan on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 72% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Juan on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PVD 06:00 → ATL 08:35DL 1023 1h 10m Atlanta ATL 09:45 → SJU 13:32DL 1882 7h 32m 96% 82%
AmericanDetails → PVD 06:15 → PHL 07:40AA 1008 1h 48m Philadelphia PHL 09:28 → SJU 13:33AA 903 7h 18m 100% 82%
UnitedDetails → PVD 05:50 → IAD 07:29UA 6192 · flown by Mesa 1h 05m Dulles IAD 08:34 → SJU 12:34UA 2021 6h 44m 96% 81%
AmericanDetails → PVD 06:03 → CLT 08:15AA 1585 2h 48m Charlotte CLT 11:03 → SJU 14:50AA 783 8h 47m 98% 80%
DeltaDetails → PVD 08:41 → ATL 11:15DL 2840 1h 45m Atlanta ATL 13:00 → SJU 16:39DL 1946 7h 58m 96% 79%
JetBlueDetails → PVD 06:00 → JFK 06:59B6 1129 3h 00m New York JFK 09:59 → SJU 14:07B6 503 8h 07m 100% 78%
DeltaDetails → PVD 13:27 → ATL 16:04DL 2147 2h 41m Atlanta ATL 18:45 → SJU 22:29DL 1861 9h 02m 98% 78%
SouthwestDetails → PVD 12:55 → BWI 14:20WN 1094 2h 45m Baltimore BWI 17:05 → SJU 21:15WN 1103 8h 20m 100% 73%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → PVD 14:46 → IAD 16:34UA 6159 · flown by Mesa 50m Dulles IAD 17:24 → SJU 21:24UA 2025 6h 38m 72% 57%
SouthwestDetails → PVD 18:35 → MCO 21:30WN 284 55m Orlando MCO 22:25 → SJU 01:25 +1WN 2708 6h 50m 72% 34%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON