tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 3411 at 13:00, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3411 Southwest Flight history → PWM 13:00 BNA 14:40 14% 4% 0.6% 59%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 1 h behind Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → PWM 05:15 → IAD 07:00UA 1926 1h 30m Dulles IAD 08:30 → BNA 09:29UA 1366 5h 14m 98% 90%
SouthwestDetails → PWM 05:35 → BWI 07:15WN 4674 2h 30m Baltimore BWI 09:45 → BNA 10:35WN 487 6h 00m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → PWM 06:00 → ATL 08:45DL 1515 2h 36m Atlanta ATL 11:21 → BNA 11:30DL 2867 6h 30m 98% 89%
UnitedDetails → PWM 06:00 → ORD 08:00UA 723 2h 37m Chicago ORD 10:37 → BNA 12:29UA 2414 7h 29m 100% 87%
SouthwestDetails → PWM 07:40 → MDW 09:15WN 3415 2h 05m Chicago MDW 11:20 → BNA 12:45WN 2733 6h 05m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → PWM 06:00 → EWR 07:33UA 3604 · flown by Republic 3h 22m Newark EWR 10:55 → BNA 12:18UA 1616 7h 18m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → PWM 09:55 → IAD 11:46UA 3465 · flown by Republic 1h 04m Dulles IAD 12:50 → BNA 13:49UA 213 4h 54m 95% 84%
AmericanDetails → PWM 07:16 → CLT 09:46AA 2966 1h 34m Charlotte CLT 11:20 → BNA 12:02AA 5082 · flown by PSA 5h 46m 97% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → PWM 17:20 → BWI 19:05WN 3414 50m Baltimore BWI 19:55 → BNA 20:50WN 687 4h 30m 75% 57%
AmericanDetails → PWM 14:56 → PHL 16:53AA 2354 51m Philadelphia PHL 17:44 → BNA 19:04AA 5580 · flown by PSA 5h 08m 60% 44%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON