Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 8–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 2966 PWM 07:16 → CLT 09:46 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 2348 PWM 14:25 → CLT 16:59 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2966 American Flight history →	PWM 07:16	CLT 09:46	8%	3%	0.7%	92%
AA 2352 American Flight history →	PWM 18:01	CLT 20:36	16%	6%	0.7%	71%
AA 2348 American Flight history →	PWM 14:25	CLT 16:59	16%	5%	0.7%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON