Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 4351 at 05:45 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18–23%.

Safest bet that day AA 4351 PWM 05:45 → DCA 07:45 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest AA 2355 PWM 17:18 → DCA 19:10 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4351 American flown by Republic Flight history →	PWM 05:45	DCA 07:45	5%	2%	0.9%	98%
AA 361 American Flight history →	PWM 12:51	DCA 14:44	18%	6%	0.7%	68%
AA 2355 American Flight history →	PWM 17:18	DCA 19:10	23%	8%	0.8%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON