tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: United via Dulles, leaving 05:15, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Denver on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 287 United Flight history → PWM 15:37 DEN 18:16 17% 5% 0.6% 73%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 2 h behind Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → PWM 05:15 → IAD 07:00UA 1926 3h 13m Dulles IAD 10:13 → DEN 12:05UA 1865 8h 50m 100% 91%
SouthwestDetails → PWM 05:35 → BWI 07:15WN 4674 2h 25m Baltimore BWI 09:40 → DEN 11:25WN 275 7h 50m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → PWM 06:00 → ORD 08:00UA 723 2h 54m Chicago ORD 10:54 → DEN 12:45UA 581 8h 45m 100% 86%
JetBlueDetails → PWM 06:00 → JFK 07:19B6 307 3h 11m New York JFK 10:30 → DEN 13:11B6 1497 9h 11m 97% 86%
UnitedDetails → PWM 09:55 → IAD 11:46UA 3465 · flown by Republic 1h 02m Dulles IAD 12:48 → DEN 14:42UA 1587 6h 47m 95% 85%
DeltaDetails → PWM 06:00 → ATL 08:45DL 1515 3h 10m Atlanta ATL 11:55 → DEN 13:00DL 706 9h 00m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → PWM 14:20 → IAD 16:30UA 3459 · flown by Republic 2h 50m Dulles IAD 19:20 → DEN 21:27UA 2667 9h 07m 96% 84%
UnitedDetails → PWM 19:16 → IAD 21:14UA 3582 · flown by Republic 1h 09m Dulles IAD 22:23 → DEN 00:30 +1UA 495 7h 14m 93% 83%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON