tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Dallas-Fort Worth on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 2353 American Flight history → PWM 17:33 DFW 20:56 18% 7% 0.8% 70%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 1 h behind Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → PWM 05:15 → IAD 07:00UA 1926 1h 30m Dulles IAD 08:30 → DFW 10:53UA 2471 6h 38m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → PWM 06:25 → LGA 07:54DL 5799 · flown by Republic 1h 36m New York LGA 09:30 → DFW 12:09DL 856 6h 44m 100% 86%
UnitedDetails → PWM 06:00 → ORD 08:00UA 723 2h 29m Chicago ORD 10:29 → DFW 13:12UA 441 8h 12m 100% 86%
UnitedDetails → PWM 06:00 → EWR 07:33UA 3604 · flown by Republic 1h 33m Newark EWR 09:06 → DFW 11:54UA 454 6h 54m 95% 84%
AmericanDetails → PWM 05:45 → DCA 07:45AA 4351 · flown by Republic 2h 15m Washington DCA 10:00 → DFW 12:21AA 1618 7h 36m 95% 84%
AmericanDetails → PWM 08:00 → PHL 09:39AA 2951 3h 13m Philadelphia PHL 12:52 → DFW 15:31AA 415 8h 31m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → PWM 06:00 → ATL 08:45DL 1515 2h 43m Atlanta ATL 11:28 → DFW 12:44DL 414 7h 44m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → PWM 09:55 → IAD 11:46UA 3465 · flown by Republic 55m Dulles IAD 12:41 → DFW 15:05UA 1564 6h 10m 94% 82%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON