tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 17–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 426 Delta Flight history → PWM 12:40 DTW 14:40 17% 5% 0.6% 84%
DL 1821 Delta Flight history → PWM 16:52 DTW 18:54 20% 7% 0.6% 72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Detroit on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PWM 06:25 → LGA 07:54DL 5799 · flown by Republic 1h 31m New York LGA 09:25 → DTW 11:24DL 1078 4h 59m 100% 87%
UnitedDetails → PWM 05:15 → IAD 07:00UA 1926 1h 35m Dulles IAD 08:35 → DTW 10:14UA 6137 · flown by Mesa 4h 59m 98% 87%
SouthwestDetails → PWM 07:40 → MDW 09:15WN 3415 3h 55m Chicago MDW 13:10 → DTW 15:20WN 4450 7h 40m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → PWM 09:55 → IAD 11:46UA 3465 · flown by Republic 1h 09m Dulles IAD 12:55 → DTW 14:34UA 3495 · flown by Republic 4h 39m 96% 85%
DeltaDetails → PWM 06:00 → ATL 08:45DL 1515 2h 15m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → DTW 12:56DL 1240 6h 56m 98% 84%
AmericanDetails → PWM 06:00 → ORD 08:11AA 4391 · flown by Republic 2h 19m Chicago ORD 10:30 → DTW 13:04AA 3498 · flown by Envoy 7h 04m 98% 84%
AmericanDetails → PWM 11:17 → LGA 12:46AA 4502 · flown by Republic 1h 59m New York LGA 14:45 → DTW 16:50AA 4630 · flown by Republic 5h 33m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → PWM 11:47 → MSP 13:49DL 1766 2h 27m Minneapolis MSP 16:16 → DTW 18:59DL 1476 7h 12m 99% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → PWM 17:00 → ORD 19:00UA 1182 47m Chicago ORD 19:47 → DTW 22:19UA 2426 5h 19m 75% 55%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON