Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 3604 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–22%.

Safest bet that day UA 3604 PWM 06:00 → EWR 07:33 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest UA 3655 PWM 20:15 → EWR 21:59 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 3604 United flown by Republic Flight history →	PWM 06:00	EWR 07:33	5%	1%	1.1%	97%
UA 3405 United flown by Republic Flight history →	PWM 10:55	EWR 12:29	10%	2%	1.1%	88%
UA 3620 United flown by Republic Flight history →	PWM 15:16	EWR 17:00	22%	5%	1.2%	79%
UA 3655 United flown by Republic Flight history →	PWM 20:15	EWR 21:59	22%	6%	1.7%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON