Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: B6 307 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22%.

Safest bet that day B6 307 PWM 06:00 → JFK 07:19 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest B6 407 PWM 15:18 → JFK 16:42 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


B6 307 JetBlue Flight history →	PWM 06:00	JFK 07:19	8%	3%	0.8%	94%
B6 407 JetBlue Flight history →	PWM 15:18	JFK 16:42	22%	9%	0.8%	69%
DL 5277 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	PWM 06:20	JFK 07:44	8%	4%	5.7%	92%
DL 5399 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	PWM 14:59	JFK 16:32	28%	10%	5.1%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON