Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 5799 at 06:25 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–22%.

Safest bet that day DL 5799 PWM 06:25 → LGA 07:54 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest DL 5719 PWM 17:30 → LGA 18:59 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 5799 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	PWM 06:25	LGA 07:54	5%	2%	0.8%	100%
AA 4502 American flown by Republic Flight history →	PWM 11:17	LGA 12:46	11%	4%	0.8%	89%
AA 2931 American Flight history →	PWM 13:25	LGA 15:00	22%	9%	0.7%	82%
DL 5719 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	PWM 17:30	LGA 18:59	22%	9%	1.0%	62%
DL 5361 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	PWM 11:02	LGA 12:29	16%	6%	1.6%	84%
DL 5346 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	PWM 13:12	LGA 14:44	31%	13%	2.4%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON