Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 3415 at 07:40, with a 5% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 3415 Southwest Flight history →	PWM 07:40	MDW 09:15	5%	1%	0.6%	86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	PWM 05:35 → BWI 07:15WN 4674	2h 20m Baltimore	BWI 09:35 → MDW 10:35WN 4217	6h 00m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	PWM 06:00 → ATL 08:45DL 1515	2h 15m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MDW 11:56DL 2417	6h 56m	98%	86%
Southwest Details →	PWM 13:00 → BNA 14:40WN 3411	1h 35m Nashville	BNA 16:15 → MDW 17:50WN 2241	5h 50m	98%	76%
Southwest Details →	PWM 15:20 → BWI 17:05WN 183	1h 55m Baltimore	BWI 19:00 → MDW 20:05WN 1005	5h 45m	97%	74%
Southwest Details →	PWM 17:20 → BWI 19:05WN 3414	1h 50m Baltimore	BWI 20:55 → MDW 22:00WN 999	5h 40m	96%	71%
Delta Details →	PWM 11:47 → MSP 13:49DL 1766	2h 49m Minneapolis	MSP 16:38 → MDW 18:18DL 4714 · flown by Endeavor	7h 30m	99%	59%
Delta Details →	PWM 12:40 → DTW 14:40DL 426	3h 27m Detroit	DTW 18:07 → MDW 18:25DL 4677 · flown by Endeavor	6h 49m	98%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON