Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, DL 1766 at 11:47, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 1766 Delta Flight history →	PWM 11:47	MSP 13:49	10%	3%	0.6%	90%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h behind Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	PWM 05:15 → IAD 07:00UA 1926	1h 45m Dulles	IAD 08:45 → MSP 10:36UA 3649 · flown by Republic	6h 21m	98%	91%
United Details →	PWM 09:55 → IAD 11:46UA 3465 · flown by Republic	1h 34m Dulles	IAD 13:20 → MSP 15:11UA 3576 · flown by Republic	6h 16m	96%	86%
Southwest Details →	PWM 07:40 → MDW 09:15WN 3415	1h 00m Chicago	MDW 10:15 → MSP 11:45WN 2869	5h 05m	95%	85%
Delta Details →	PWM 06:25 → LGA 07:54DL 5799 · flown by Republic	3h 16m New York	LGA 11:10 → MSP 13:10DL 2409	7h 45m	100%	85%
United Details →	PWM 06:00 → ORD 08:00UA 723	2h 25m Chicago	ORD 10:25 → MSP 12:17UA 5684 · flown by SkyWest	7h 17m	100%	85%
American Details →	PWM 06:00 → ORD 08:11AA 4391 · flown by Republic	3h 36m Chicago	ORD 11:47 → MSP 13:32AA 3375 · flown by Envoy	8h 32m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	PWM 06:20 → JFK 07:44DL 5277 · flown by Endeavor	3h 51m New York	JFK 11:35 → MSP 13:50DL 2414	8h 30m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	PWM 06:00 → ATL 08:45DL 1515	1h 10m Atlanta	ATL 09:55 → MSP 11:31DL 2090	6h 31m	95%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON