Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 723 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–19%.

Safest bet that day UA 723 PWM 06:00 → ORD 08:00 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 99% on time Riskiest UA 1182 PWM 17:00 → ORD 19:00 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 51% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 723 United Flight history →	PWM 06:00	ORD 08:00	5%	2%	0.8%	99%
AA 4391 American flown by Republic Flight history →	PWM 06:00	ORD 08:11	5%	3%	1.1%	84%
AA 4488 American flown by Republic Flight history →	PWM 12:07	ORD 14:13	11%	4%	1.0%	78%
AA 4774 American flown by Republic Flight history →	PWM 19:24	ORD 21:30	13%	5%	1.4%	80%
UA 1182 United Flight history →	PWM 17:00	ORD 19:00	19%	6%	0.7%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON