Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:48, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Charlotte on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 69% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 5579 American flown by PSA Flight history →	RAP 11:50	CLT 17:25	18%	10%	2.3%	70%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charlotte is 2 h ahead of Rapid City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	RAP 14:31 → MSP 17:07DL 3967 · flown by SkyWest	3h 07m Minneapolis	MSP 20:14 → CLT 23:44DL 2929	7h 13m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	RAP 06:48 → MSP 09:29DL 3927 · flown by SkyWest	1h 01m Minneapolis	MSP 10:30 → CLT 13:57DL 2819	5h 09m	94%	84%
United Details →	RAP 05:00 → DEN 06:37UA 5576 · flown by SkyWest	3h 13m Denver	DEN 09:50 → CLT 15:12UA 1633	8h 12m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	RAP 11:00 → MSP 13:38DL 3971 · flown by SkyWest	1h 37m Minneapolis	MSP 15:15 → CLT 18:49DL 2821	5h 49m	97%	82%
American Details →	RAP 06:30 → DFW 10:00AA 4277 · flown by Envoy	1h 55m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:55 → CLT 15:36AA 1696	7h 06m	98%	78%
United Details →	RAP 12:35 → DEN 14:14UA 5742 · flown by SkyWest	3h 31m Denver	DEN 17:45 → CLT 23:08UA 616	8h 33m	97%	75%
American Details →	RAP 12:41 → ORD 16:10AA 3908 · flown by Envoy	2h 37m Chicago	ORD 18:47 → CLT 21:59AA 689	7h 18m	97%	73%
United Details →	RAP 06:00 → ORD 09:34UA 5811 · flown by SkyWest	52m Chicago	ORD 10:26 → CLT 13:50UA 3450 · flown by Republic	5h 50m	83%	72%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	RAP 11:44 → PHX 13:15AA 4070 · flown by Envoy	48m Phoenix	PHX 14:03 → CLT 21:18AA 1211	7h 34m	69%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON