Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 5811 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19–21%.

Safest bet that day UA 5811 RAP 06:00 → ORD 09:34 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest UA 1623 RAP 13:35 → ORD 16:59 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5811 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	RAP 06:00	ORD 09:34	11%	6%	1.1%	83%
AA 3908 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	RAP 12:41	ORD 16:10	19%	7%	1.1%	68%
AA 3767 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	RAP 15:25	ORD 18:59	19%	8%	1.8%	81%
UA 1623 United Flight history →	RAP 13:35	ORD 16:59	21%	7%	1.0%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON