Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AA 4070 at 11:44, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 4070 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	RAP 11:44	PHX 13:15	16%	5%	0.9%	88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 1 h behind Rapid City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	RAP 05:00 → DEN 06:37UA 5576 · flown by SkyWest	1h 23m Denver	DEN 08:00 → PHX 09:00UA 1481	5h 00m	96%	85%
Delta Details →	RAP 06:48 → MSP 09:29DL 3927 · flown by SkyWest	2h 03m Minneapolis	MSP 11:32 → PHX 12:46DL 2274	6h 58m	97%	83%
United Details →	RAP 07:00 → DEN 08:21UA 1767	3h 04m Denver	DEN 11:25 → PHX 12:25UA 1686	6h 25m	99%	82%
United Details →	RAP 10:23 → DEN 12:00UA 5708 · flown by SkyWest	3h 35m Denver	DEN 15:35 → PHX 16:35UA 1254	7h 12m	99%	79%
Delta Details →	RAP 11:00 → MSP 13:38DL 3971 · flown by SkyWest	1h 16m Minneapolis	MSP 14:54 → PHX 16:09DL 2284	6h 09m	93%	77%
American Details →	RAP 06:30 → DFW 10:00AA 4277 · flown by Envoy	50m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:50 → PHX 11:19AA 2990	5h 49m	93%	76%
United Details →	RAP 15:31 → DEN 17:10UA 5805 · flown by SkyWest	3h 49m Denver	DEN 20:59 → PHX 21:59UA 1236	7h 28m	98%	73%
Delta Details →	RAP 14:31 → MSP 17:07DL 3967 · flown by SkyWest	1h 41m Minneapolis	MSP 18:48 → PHX 20:06DL 2297	6h 35m	93%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON