tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AS 3223 at 11:26, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 3223 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → RDM 11:26 BUR 13:31 14% 5% 1.0% 85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Burbank on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → RDM 05:05 → SLC 07:48DL 4004 · flown by SkyWest 2h 57m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → BUR 11:54DL 3933 · flown by SkyWest 6h 49m 98% 89%
UnitedDetails → RDM 05:55 → SFO 07:33UA 702 1h 00m San Francisco SFO 08:33 → BUR 09:57UA 2363 4h 02m 95% 83%
UnitedDetails → RDM 05:00 → DEN 08:28UA 1188 2h 47m Denver DEN 11:15 → BUR 12:48UA 2154 7h 48m 98% 82%
AlaskaDetails → RDM 16:00 → PDX 16:50AS 2167 · flown by Horizon 1h 07m Portland PDX 17:57 → BUR 20:18AS 559 4h 18m 96% 81%
AlaskaDetails → RDM 12:34 → PDX 13:35AS 3074 · flown by SkyWest 1h 20m Portland PDX 14:55 → BUR 17:13AS 1386 4h 39m 94% 78%
UnitedDetails → RDM 13:49 → SFO 15:32UA 2262 2h 22m San Francisco SFO 17:54 → BUR 19:20UA 1321 5h 31m 96% 74%
UnitedDetails → RDM 15:51 → SFO 17:39UA 4739 · flown by SkyWest 2h 41m San Francisco SFO 20:20 → BUR 21:47UA 1367 5h 56m 94% 73%
AlaskaDetails → RDM 06:00 → SEA 07:14AS 3026 · flown by SkyWest 2h 29m Seattle SEA 09:43 → BUR 12:23AS 426 6h 23m 99% 72%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON