Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: UA 1188 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 1188 United Flight history →	RDM 05:00	DEN 08:28	7%	3%	0.8%	88%
UA 2350 United Flight history →	RDM 12:59	DEN 16:27	17%	5%	0.7%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 1 h ahead of Redmond). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	RDM 05:25 → PDX 06:15AS 2043 · flown by Horizon	1h 05m Portland	PDX 07:20 → DEN 11:03AS 401	4h 38m	96%	86%
Delta Details →	RDM 05:05 → SLC 07:48DL 4004 · flown by SkyWest	2h 27m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:15 → DEN 11:47DL 1553	5h 42m	98%	84%
United Details →	RDM 07:00 → LAX 09:23UA 5482 · flown by SkyWest	1h 32m Los Angeles	LAX 10:55 → DEN 14:27UA 2061	6h 27m	97%	83%
United Details →	RDM 13:49 → SFO 15:32UA 2262	3h 24m San Francisco	SFO 18:56 → DEN 22:44UA 2436	7h 55m	99%	81%
United Details →	RDM 05:55 → SFO 07:33UA 702	58m San Francisco	SFO 08:31 → DEN 12:22UA 2348	5h 27m	95%	81%
Alaska Details →	RDM 16:00 → PDX 16:50AS 2167 · flown by Horizon	1h 14m Portland	PDX 18:04 → DEN 21:40AS 1627	4h 40m	96%	78%
United Details →	RDM 15:51 → SFO 17:39UA 4739 · flown by SkyWest	3h 21m San Francisco	SFO 21:00 → DEN 00:47 +1UA 301	7h 56m	94%	75%
Delta Details →	RDM 12:15 → SLC 15:04DL 3727 · flown by SkyWest	3h 26m Salt Lake City	SLC 18:30 → DEN 20:01DL 1586	6h 46m	99%	73%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	RDM 06:00 → SEA 07:14AS 3026 · flown by SkyWest	50m Seattle	SEA 08:04 → DEN 11:56AS 375	4h 56m	70%	56%
Alaska Details →	RDM 09:44 → SEA 10:57AS 2076 · flown by Horizon	47m Seattle	SEA 11:44 → DEN 15:38AS 535	4h 54m	42%	29%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON