tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 5–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 3773 American flown by Envoy Flight history → RDM 05:30 PHX 07:57 5% 3% 0.9% 99%
AA 3770 American flown by Envoy Flight history → RDM 13:48 PHX 16:16 14% 4% 0.8% 80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → RDM 05:05 → SLC 07:48DL 4004 · flown by SkyWest 3h 42m Salt Lake City SLC 11:30 → PHX 12:12DL 1431 7h 07m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → RDM 05:00 → DEN 08:28UA 1188 2h 57m Denver DEN 11:25 → PHX 12:25UA 1686 7h 25m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → RDM 07:00 → LAX 09:23UA 5482 · flown by SkyWest 3h 42m Los Angeles LAX 13:05 → PHX 14:42UA 5548 · flown by SkyWest 7h 42m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → RDM 13:49 → SFO 15:32UA 2262 3h 53m San Francisco SFO 19:25 → PHX 21:39UA 2347 7h 50m 99% 77%
UnitedDetails → RDM 05:55 → SFO 07:33UA 702 2h 32m San Francisco SFO 10:05 → PHX 12:14UA 500 6h 19m 98% 76%
DeltaDetails → RDM 12:15 → SLC 15:04DL 3727 · flown by SkyWest 2h 21m Salt Lake City SLC 17:25 → PHX 18:07DL 1451 5h 52m 99% 76%
UnitedDetails → RDM 12:59 → DEN 16:27UA 2350 3h 05m Denver DEN 19:32 → PHX 20:32UA 1729 7h 33m 98% 73%
AlaskaDetails → RDM 06:00 → SEA 07:14AS 3026 · flown by SkyWest 2h 45m Seattle SEA 09:59 → PHX 13:01AS 593 7h 01m 99% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → RDM 13:49 → SFO 15:32UA 2262 53m San Francisco SFO 16:25 → PHX 18:39UA 574 4h 50m 74% 54%
AlaskaDetails → RDM 09:44 → SEA 10:57AS 2076 · flown by Horizon 53m Seattle SEA 11:50 → PHX 14:57AS 1371 5h 13m 60% 40%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON