Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 4036 at 06:13 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–20%.

Safest bet that day DL 4036 RDM 06:13 → SEA 07:40 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AS 3124 RDM 17:49 → SEA 19:10 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 4036 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	RDM 06:13	SEA 07:40	6%	4%	0.9%	89%
AS 3026 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	RDM 06:00	SEA 07:14	9%	4%	0.9%	86%
DL 3735 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	RDM 13:27	SEA 14:50	16%	5%	0.8%	89%
DL 4141 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	RDM 19:25	SEA 20:48	18%	7%	1.2%	89%
AS 3124 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	RDM 17:49	SEA 19:10	20%	8%	1.0%	68%
AS 2027 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	RDM 07:15	SEA 08:28	8%	2%	1.9%	92%
AS 2076 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	RDM 09:44	SEA 10:57	29%	2%	1.9%	71%
AS 2400 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	RDM 13:48	SEA 14:59	29%	10%	1.9%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON