Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 702 at 05:55 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–27%.

Safest bet that day UA 702 RDM 05:55 → SFO 07:33 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AS 3226 RDM 18:49 → SFO 20:39 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 29% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 702 United Flight history →	RDM 05:55	SFO 07:33	5%	2%	0.7%	94%
UA 2262 United Flight history →	RDM 13:49	SFO 15:32	23%	9%	0.7%	51%
UA 5534 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	RDM 19:39	SFO 21:27	25%	17%	1.1%	64%
UA 4739 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	RDM 15:51	SFO 17:39	25%	13%	0.9%	72%
AS 3226 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	RDM 18:49	SFO 20:39	27%	16%	1.1%	29%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON