Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 1067 at 10:05 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 34%.

Safest bet that day WN 1067 RDU 10:05 → AUS 12:00 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time Riskiest WN 3417 RDU 19:30 → AUS 21:35 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 32% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 1067 Southwest Flight history →	RDU 10:05	AUS 12:00	13%	2%	0.6%	79%
WN 3417 Southwest Flight history →	RDU 19:30	AUS 21:35	34%	9%	0.6%	32%
DL 4921 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	RDU 07:00	AUS 09:11	11%	4%	1.9%	89%
DL 4967 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	RDU 16:30	AUS 18:58	19%	8%	0.3%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON