Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3418 at 06:35 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–24%.

Safest bet that day WN 3418 RDU 06:35 → BNA 07:05 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest WN 3421 RDU 21:15 → BNA 21:45 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 3418 Southwest Flight history →	RDU 06:35	BNA 07:05	5%	1%	0.8%	94%
AA 4344 American flown by Republic Flight history →	RDU 10:00	BNA 10:47	7%	2%	0.7%	93%
WN 684 Southwest Flight history →	RDU 10:40	BNA 11:15	7%	2%	0.6%	95%
AA 4489 American flown by Republic Flight history →	RDU 15:59	BNA 16:47	14%	4%	0.7%	75%
WN 3490 Southwest Flight history →	RDU 16:05	BNA 16:40	21%	5%	0.6%	50%
WN 3421 Southwest Flight history →	RDU 21:15	BNA 21:45	24%	6%	0.6%	61%
DL 5114 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	RDU 08:05	BNA 08:51	17%	9%	1.8%	83%
DL 5152 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	RDU 18:15	BNA 19:19	23%	12%	1.8%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON