Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3422 at 06:10 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–23%.

Safest bet that day WN 3422 RDU 06:10 → BWI 07:15 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest WN 3425 RDU 20:20 → BWI 21:30 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3422 Southwest Flight history →	RDU 06:10	BWI 07:15	4%	1%	1.0%	93%
WN 4550 Southwest Flight history →	RDU 08:40	BWI 09:50	6%	2%	0.9%	90%
WN 1059 Southwest Flight history →	RDU 11:20	BWI 12:30	8%	2%	0.7%	92%
WN 297 Southwest Flight history →	RDU 13:20	BWI 14:35	11%	3%	0.7%	88%
WN 1063 Southwest Flight history →	RDU 17:40	BWI 18:50	21%	5%	0.7%	68%
WN 3425 Southwest Flight history →	RDU 20:20	BWI 21:30	23%	6%	0.7%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON