Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 1903 at 05:01 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–29%.

Safest bet that day AA 1903 RDU 05:01 → CLT 06:00 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AA 2394 RDU 20:08 → CLT 21:20 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1903 American Flight history →	RDU 05:01	CLT 06:00	6%	2%	1.4%	95%
AA 2362 American Flight history →	RDU 08:54	CLT 10:19	11%	3%	1.0%	90%
AA 2420 American Flight history →	RDU 06:41	CLT 07:48	12%	3%	1.1%	88%
AA 2381 American Flight history →	RDU 11:13	CLT 12:20	15%	4%	0.7%	75%
AA 2363 American Flight history →	RDU 12:57	CLT 14:06	15%	4%	0.7%	81%
AA 2390 American Flight history →	RDU 15:07	CLT 16:24	18%	5%	0.7%	62%
AA 2402 American Flight history →	RDU 16:15	CLT 17:34	22%	6%	0.8%	64%
AA 2379 American Flight history →	RDU 18:29	CLT 19:45	26%	6%	0.8%	58%
AA 2394 American Flight history →	RDU 20:08	CLT 21:20	29%	6%	0.8%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON