tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 4911 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record RDU 14:55 CVG 16:41 20% 8% 0.6% 80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hebron on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → RDU 05:10 → ATL 06:28DL 1552 3h 31m Atlanta ATL 09:59 → CVG 11:25DL 3160 6h 15m 99% 90%
AmericanDetails → RDU 05:31 → JFK 07:16AA 4805 · flown by Republic 1h 24m New York JFK 08:40 → CVG 10:56AA 4408 · flown by Republic 5h 25m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → RDU 07:00 → BOS 09:02DL 1054 2h 38m Boston BOS 11:40 → CVG 14:07DL 5598 · flown by Republic 7h 07m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → RDU 09:23 → BOS 11:25DL 1022 2h 47m Boston BOS 14:12 → CVG 16:45DL 5789 · flown by Republic 7h 22m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → RDU 06:20 → ATL 07:46DL 1192 3h 25m Atlanta ATL 11:11 → CVG 12:34DL 3149 6h 14m 99% 86%
SouthwestDetails → RDU 06:35 → BNA 07:05WN 3418 3h 00m Nashville BNA 10:05 → CVG 12:15WN 483 5h 40m 98% 86%
AmericanDetails → RDU 05:01 → CLT 06:00AA 1903 1h 06m Charlotte CLT 07:06 → CVG 08:32AA 2492 3h 31m 95% 85%
SouthwestDetails → RDU 08:05 → MDW 09:00WN 3432 4h 00m Chicago MDW 13:00 → CVG 15:10WN 1247 7h 05m 100% 85%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → RDU 16:29 → DCA 17:48AA 5367 · flown by PSA 58m Washington DCA 18:46 → CVG 20:37AA 5147 · flown by PSA 4h 08m 63% 44%
DeltaDetails → RDU 11:29 → LGA 13:12DL 4667 · flown by Endeavor 47m New York LGA 13:59 → CVG 16:11DL 4949 · flown by Endeavor 4h 42m 49% 30%
DeltaDetails → RDU 17:05 → LGA 18:52DL 5180 · flown by Endeavor 1h 18m New York LGA 20:10 → CVG 22:35DL 5517 · flown by Endeavor 5h 30m 53% 23%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON