Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 936 at 12:45, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 936 Southwest Flight history →	RDU 12:45	DAL 14:25	18%	3%	0.6%	62%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas is 1 h behind Raleigh/Durham). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	RDU 06:10 → BWI 07:15WN 3422	2h 20m Baltimore	BWI 09:35 → DAL 11:45WN 931	6h 35m	100%	90%
Southwest Details →	RDU 05:15 → DEN 06:50WN 4083	1h 55m Denver	DEN 08:45 → DAL 11:40WN 1360	7h 25m	99%	90%
Southwest Details →	RDU 06:25 → STL 07:30WN 3435	2h 15m St Louis	STL 09:45 → DAL 11:25WN 4196	6h 00m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	RDU 05:10 → ATL 06:28DL 1552	1h 47m Atlanta	ATL 08:15 → DAL 09:21DL 441	5h 11m	98%	89%
Southwest Details →	RDU 06:35 → BNA 07:05WN 3418	1h 00m Nashville	BNA 08:05 → DAL 10:00WN 486	4h 25m	95%	88%
Southwest Details →	RDU 05:05 → HOU 06:50WN 4771	2h 40m Houston	HOU 09:30 → DAL 10:35WN 14	6h 30m	100%	87%
Southwest Details →	RDU 08:05 → MDW 09:00WN 3432	3h 20m Chicago	MDW 12:20 → DAL 14:35WN 2757	7h 30m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	RDU 06:20 → ATL 07:46DL 1192	2h 29m Atlanta	ATL 10:15 → DAL 11:24DL 1115	6h 04m	98%	85%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	RDU 19:55 → STL 21:00WN 3457	50m St Louis	STL 21:50 → DAL 23:30WN 3904	4h 35m	68%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON