Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2985 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 37–40%.

Safest bet that day AA 2985 RDU 06:00 → DCA 07:13 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AA 5347 RDU 17:56 → DCA 19:15 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 37% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 2985 American Flight history →	RDU 06:00	DCA 07:13	16%	4%	1.2%	85%
AA 5581 American flown by PSA Flight history →	RDU 10:45	DCA 12:13	24%	8%	1.4%	68%
AA 4700 American flown by Republic Flight history →	RDU 13:14	DCA 14:42	26%	5%	1.0%	59%
AA 5367 American flown by PSA Flight history →	RDU 16:29	DCA 17:48	37%	12%	2.0%	43%
OH 5596 PSA	RDU 20:03	DCA 21:30	37%	12%	2.4%	no record
AA 5347 American flown by PSA Flight history →	RDU 17:56	DCA 19:15	40%	14%	2.1%	37%
DL 5006 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	RDU 06:00	DCA 07:19	18%	4%	1.2%	82%
DL 5198 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	RDU 19:47	DCA 21:20	51%	23%	8.1%	49%
DL 5310 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	RDU 15:42	DCA 17:07	53%	17%	2.3%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON