Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4083 at 05:15 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–34%.

Safest bet that day WN 4083 RDU 05:15 → DEN 06:50 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest WN 3428 RDU 16:55 → DEN 18:40 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 43% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4083 Southwest Flight history →	RDU 05:15	DEN 06:50	4%	1%	1.1%	88%
UA 2383 United Flight history →	RDU 08:30	DEN 10:17	10%	3%	0.7%	90%
F9 2225 Frontier Flight history →	RDU 12:26	DEN 14:19	17%	5%	0.8%	82%
UA 2288 United Flight history →	RDU 16:22	DEN 18:25	20%	7%	0.6%	81%
WN 3428 Southwest Flight history →	RDU 16:55	DEN 18:40	34%	7%	0.6%	43%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	RDU 06:35 → BNA 07:05WN 3418	50m Nashville	BNA 07:55 → DEN 09:40WN 499	5h 05m	88%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON