Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2605 at 05:16 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–29%.

Safest bet that day AA 2605 RDU 05:16 → DFW 07:27 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 2361 RDU 19:31 → DFW 21:43 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 49% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2605 American Flight history →	RDU 05:16	DFW 07:27	7%	3%	1.2%	90%
AA 1217 American Flight history →	RDU 07:47	DFW 10:00	12%	4%	1.1%	87%
AA 2366 American Flight history →	RDU 11:41	DFW 13:45	17%	5%	0.8%	74%
AA 2400 American Flight history →	RDU 14:20	DFW 16:33	18%	6%	0.9%	77%
AA 2371 American Flight history →	RDU 16:53	DFW 19:08	25%	6%	0.9%	61%
AA 2361 American Flight history →	RDU 19:31	DFW 21:43	29%	6%	1.1%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON