Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 1525 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–35%.

Safest bet that day UA 1525 RDU 06:00 → EWR 07:40 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest UA 1205 RDU 18:33 → EWR 20:15 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 1525 United Flight history →	RDU 06:00	EWR 07:40	6%	2%	0.9%	93%
UA 1753 United Flight history →	RDU 07:00	EWR 08:40	8%	3%	0.9%	92%
UA 3443 United flown by Republic Flight history →	RDU 12:40	EWR 14:32	16%	4%	1.2%	95%worse than usual
UA 2415 United Flight history →	RDU 15:14	EWR 17:00	28%	11%	0.8%	76%
UA 1205 United Flight history →	RDU 18:33	EWR 20:15	35%	12%	0.8%	60%
DL 5120 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	RDU 07:05	EWR 08:59	11%	4%	3.2%	89%
DL 5273 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	RDU 11:35	EWR 13:23	27%	10%	3.0%	73%
DL 5222 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	RDU 17:00	EWR 18:49	42%	21%	9.2%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON