Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 4771 at 05:05, with a 4% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4771 Southwest Flight history →	RDU 05:05	HOU 06:50	4%	1%	1.8%	97%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Raleigh/Durham). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	RDU 05:10 → ATL 06:28DL 1552	2h 13m Atlanta	ATL 08:41 → HOU 09:45DL 1509	5h 35m	98%	87%
Southwest Details →	RDU 06:10 → BWI 07:15WN 3422	1h 10m Baltimore	BWI 08:25 → HOU 10:40WN 4158	5h 30m	100%	87%
Southwest Details →	RDU 06:35 → BNA 07:05WN 3418	55m Nashville	BNA 08:00 → HOU 10:05WN 532	4h 30m	92%	84%
Southwest Details →	RDU 08:05 → MDW 09:00WN 3432	1h 10m Chicago	MDW 10:10 → HOU 12:50WN 2783	5h 45m	96%	84%
Delta Details →	RDU 06:20 → ATL 07:46DL 1192	3h 19m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → HOU 12:10DL 1195	6h 50m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	RDU 09:58 → ATL 11:22DL 2634	3h 50m Atlanta	ATL 15:12 → HOU 16:22DL 2381	7h 24m	100%	80%
American Details →	RDU 05:16 → DFW 07:27AA 2605	3h 24m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:51 → HOU 12:16AA 6413 · flown by SkyWest	8h 00m	99%	79%
Delta Details →	RDU 15:35 → ATL 17:05DL 2026	3h 40m Atlanta	ATL 20:45 → HOU 21:51DL 2051	7h 16m	98%	75%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	RDU 19:45 → MDW 20:40WN 3766	1h 00m Chicago	MDW 21:40 → HOU 00:15 +1WN 954	5h 30m	72%	52%
American Details →	RDU 19:31 → DFW 21:43AA 2361	55m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:38 → HOU 23:56AA 5465 · flown by PSA	5h 25m	68%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON