Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 12–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 2074 RDU 06:30 → IAH 08:21 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest F9 1741 RDU 10:20 → IAH 12:19 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 2074 United Flight history →	RDU 06:30	IAH 08:21	12%	3%	0.9%	94%
UA 2407 United Flight history →	RDU 16:51	IAH 18:58	16%	5%	0.7%	83%
F9 1741 Frontier Flight history →	RDU 10:20	IAH 12:19	21%	7%	1.1%	80%
UA 6296 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	RDU 12:45	IAH 14:44	11%	2%	1.0%	89%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON