tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 4780 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record RDU 11:58 IND 13:56 21% 9% 2.4% 79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Indianapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → RDU 06:35 → BNA 07:05WN 3418 3h 00m Nashville BNA 10:05 → IND 12:20WN 537 5h 45m 98% 91%
SouthwestDetails → RDU 06:10 → BWI 07:15WN 3422 3h 30m Baltimore BWI 10:45 → IND 12:30WN 960 6h 20m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → RDU 09:23 → BOS 11:25DL 1022 2h 34m Boston BOS 13:59 → IND 16:46DL 5627 · flown by Republic 7h 23m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → RDU 09:54 → DTW 11:36DL 1427 2h 24m Detroit DTW 14:00 → IND 15:17DL 5846 · flown by Republic 5h 23m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → RDU 05:10 → ATL 06:28DL 1552 1h 02m Atlanta ATL 07:30 → IND 09:00DL 3125 3h 50m 96% 88%
UnitedDetails → RDU 06:00 → IAD 07:11UA 1789 1h 13m Dulles IAD 08:24 → IND 10:13UA 3561 · flown by Republic 4h 13m 96% 88%
AmericanDetails → RDU 06:00 → DCA 07:13AA 2985 2h 27m Washington DCA 09:40 → IND 11:39AA 4701 · flown by Republic 5h 39m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → RDU 06:20 → ATL 07:46DL 1192 3h 19m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → IND 12:36DL 3013 6h 16m 98% 87%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → RDU 15:01 → LGA 16:44DL 5184 · flown by Endeavor 58m New York LGA 17:42 → IND 20:24DL 5635 · flown by Republic 5h 23m 58% 43%
UnitedDetails → RDU 13:15 → ORD 14:45UA 5465 · flown by SkyWest 50m Chicago ORD 15:35 → IND 17:52UA 5985 · flown by SkyWest 4h 37m 49% 37%
DeltaDetails → RDU 17:05 → LGA 18:52DL 5180 · flown by Endeavor 1h 03m New York LGA 19:55 → IND 22:33DL 5696 · flown by Republic 5h 28m 44% 29%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON